Jerry says he has meetings set-up

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D-train
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Re: Jerry says he has meetings set-up

Post by D-train » Tue Nov 23, 2021 9:50 pm

GL_Storm wrote:
Tue Nov 23, 2021 9:34 pm
These children on twitter that block anyone that disagrees with them...
Not to mention lashing out with his anti vax and bitcoin "insults"
dt

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Donn Beach
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Re: Jerry says he has meetings set-up

Post by Donn Beach » Tue Nov 23, 2021 10:10 pm

D-train wrote:
Tue Nov 23, 2021 6:56 pm
GL_Storm wrote:
Tue Nov 23, 2021 6:29 pm
I wouldn't do that deal for Semien. I'd go 5 at that AAV and that would be a probable overpay on years 4 and 5. But I don't want my team saddled with his age 38 and 39 seasons.
36 and 37 seasons. He wouldn't turn 38 until mid Sept of the 7th year.
the number of seasons is irrelevant, its how much WAR you can hope to get out of him...$200 mil be like 30 WAR?

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Donn Beach
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Re: Jerry says he has meetings set-up

Post by Donn Beach » Tue Nov 23, 2021 10:14 pm

Coeurd’Alene J wrote:
Tue Nov 23, 2021 7:17 pm
Sexymarinersfan wrote:
Tue Nov 23, 2021 5:39 pm
https://nesn.com/2021/11/mlb-rumors-her ... s-seeking/

Semien's asking price beginning to leak out. More than $200M and 7 years. Woo, that's a big number! Thats an AAV of $28.5 a season.

If that's what it takes to land him, then count me in.

Plus I found us a possible starter that could be an option for us. He's definitely a sleeper, but I guarantee that Dipoto has at least looked at him.

https://sportsinfosolutionsblog.com/202 ... l-miranda/
Gerald has eliminated a majority of available FA with his rhetoric and it’s not lost on a killer like Boras. By the time we are done with this shit show we are probably paying Correa money for a Semien player
Boras isn't setting Seiman's value, the market does that

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Re: Jerry says he has meetings set-up

Post by GL_Storm » Tue Nov 23, 2021 10:36 pm

Donn Beach wrote:
Tue Nov 23, 2021 10:10 pm
D-train wrote:
Tue Nov 23, 2021 6:56 pm
GL_Storm wrote:
Tue Nov 23, 2021 6:29 pm
I wouldn't do that deal for Semien. I'd go 5 at that AAV and that would be a probable overpay on years 4 and 5. But I don't want my team saddled with his age 38 and 39 seasons.
36 and 37 seasons. He wouldn't turn 38 until mid Sept of the 7th year.
the number of seasons is irrelevant, its how much WAR you can hope to get out of him...$200 mil be like 30 WAR?
At 8 mil per win, it would be 25 WAR. I think if a contract goes well, you would hope to average 5 WAR per year in years 1, 2, and 3, and then assume declining performance the remaining years. That's a hope though.

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Donn Beach
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Re: Jerry says he has meetings set-up

Post by Donn Beach » Tue Nov 23, 2021 10:43 pm

wouldn't there be an inflation factor?

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D-train
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Re: Jerry says he has meetings set-up

Post by D-train » Tue Nov 23, 2021 10:49 pm

I think $8M is a good number for one WAR but there seems to be a decline as you add WAR. For example, 7 WAR guys are not making $56M per year.

How about a decline of 2MM for each additional WAR until you reach 3 WAR then constant at 3M per additional WAR.

1- 8M
2- 14M
3- 18M
4- 21M
5- 24M
6 - 27M
7 - 30M
8 - 33M
dt

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D-train
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Re: Jerry says he has meetings set-up

Post by D-train » Tue Nov 23, 2021 10:50 pm

Donn Beach wrote:
Tue Nov 23, 2021 10:43 pm
wouldn't there be an inflation factor?
Definitely a consideration now that Brandon is in office. lol
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D-train
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Re: Jerry says he has meetings set-up

Post by D-train » Tue Nov 23, 2021 10:57 pm

OK we are just about to fire up the Podcast. let us know if you have any topics you would like us to discuss.
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Donn Beach
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Re: Jerry says he has meetings set-up

Post by Donn Beach » Tue Nov 23, 2021 11:12 pm

D-train wrote:
Tue Nov 23, 2021 10:49 pm
I think $8M is a good number for one WAR but there seems to be a decline as you add WAR. For example, 7 WAR guys are not making $56M per year.

How about a decline of 2MM for each additional WAR until you reach 3 WAR then constant at 3M per additional WAR.

1- 8M
2- 14M
3- 18M
4- 21M
5- 24M
6 - 27M
7 - 30M
8 - 33M
They are not getting $56 mil, but that would be the value they are supplying. I really do not see years as being relevant. If you give a guy a $100 mil contract over six years, and he gives you 15 WAR the first three seasons and nothing the last three, @ 8 mil a WAR he has earned the contract, it was a good contract. Everybody is going to call the last seasons an anchor, but what it is would be paying for value already delivered.

In terms of inflation, i was thinking a WAR would probably be valued more year six than in year one which would seem to need to be factored in

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Re: Jerry says he has meetings set-up

Post by bpj » Tue Nov 23, 2021 11:29 pm

Seems like a tree falling in the woods situation.

If a player gets 5 WAR on a team that didn't make the playoffs, was his 5 WAR worth anything to your team at all?

Could have not made the playoffs with minimum wage guys.

🤷‍♂️

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