M's expected to be in on Skubal per Buster Olney

[gil]

I don't want to see anymore fucking trade brainstorms using that fucking bullshit feeder trade value site. It's complete garbage.

If 93% success rate is complete garbage then you success rate is a steaming sack of shit. I still remember the prediction that the Bartender was going to become a starter. I don't give a fuck if you don't want to see them but thanks for letting me know!!!!

I've wondered about this too. What their data says is that 93.6% of real life trades were accepted by their model. Fine.

By isn't this different?: What percentage of trades accepted by their model (i.e., hypothetic trades, the types that are posted here) are accepted by real life general managers? I would think this is a much smaller number.

[D-train]

btw DL Hall is a 27 yo reliever that put up 0.6 WAR this season and Joey Ortiz is also 27 and put up 0.3 WAR and had a .593 OPS.

I bet the O's are really regretting that trade for Corbin Burnes! That trade really drained the farm for a one year of a former Cy Young winner. LMAO.

[D-train]

I don't want to see anymore fucking trade brainstorms using that fucking bullshit feeder trade value site. It's complete garbage.

If 93% success rate is complete garbage then you success rate is a steaming sack of shit. I still remember the prediction that the Bartender was going to become a starter. I don't give a fuck if you don't want to see them but thanks for letting me know!!!!

I've wondered about this too. What their data says is that 93.6% of real life trades were accepted by their model. Fine.

By isn't this different?: What percentage of trades accepted by their model (i.e., hypothetic trades, the types that are posted here) are accepted by real life general managers? I would think this is a much smaller number.

That is nonsensical because GMs wouldn't be in all of the infinite number of trades accepted by their model.

[D-train]

Funny in my X chat people are saying to it would be crazy to do a 1 for 1 Kirby for Skubal. I think we are narrowing down the price.

I feel like I am being trolled right now. You are really using chatter on a Twitter feed to estimate trade values?

I'm saying if you propose a trade and half the people think it's too much and half think it's too low it's probably just right

[D-train]

I didn't and I was right.

Issue is, the Naylor/Geno trades are consistent with what I think they want their strategy to be.

They want to be within striking distance of the playoffs by the trade deadline and they feel with the current roster + coming prospects they can do that. They then feel they can supplement the roster by trading fringe prospects for rentals.

I don't think Skubal is consistent with that philosophy at all.

Would you trade Miller for Skubal?

I don't know if it's as much about what I would do vs what the M's would do.

I think the M's think '25 was blip for Miller. He's cheaply controlled and very talented which I think checks a lot of boxes for the M's. Not very many 25 year olds out there are hanging sub-3 ERA's over 31 starts... which is why MLBTV is horseshit in some respects.

I also don't see the M's trading for Skubal if it is going to weaken their current rotation in doing so.

If they go for Skubal, it's got to be for prospects only. I realize Detroit is contending... but they seem to be falling into a more small-market approach where trading Skubal for a boat load of good prospects fits their building model.

Holy s*** how would it weaken our current rotation you're trading the best picture on the planet for one of our guys who mostly suck on the road. This place is gone crazy today.. it massively strengthens our current rotation!

[Seattle or Bust]

Would you trade Miller for Skubal?

I don't know if it's as much about what I would do vs what the M's would do.

I think the M's think '25 was blip for Miller. He's cheaply controlled and very talented which I think checks a lot of boxes for the M's. Not very many 25 year olds out there are hanging sub-3 ERA's over 31 starts... which is why MLBTV is horseshit in some respects.

I also don't see the M's trading for Skubal if it is going to weaken their current rotation in doing so.

If they go for Skubal, it's got to be for prospects only. I realize Detroit is contending... but they seem to be falling into a more small-market approach where trading Skubal for a boat load of good prospects fits their building model.

Holy s*** how would it weaken our current rotation you're trading the best picture on the planet for one of our guys who mostly suck on the road. This place is gone crazy today.. it massively strengthens our current rotation!

How?

You think they’re trading Miller for Skubal and then keeping Castillo on the payroll? There’s no way they’re doing that given their current payroll projection.

In acquiring Skubal you’re guaranteeing like a Logan Evan’s in the 5th spot.

[D-train]

Three absurd over pays for Skubal. Apparently the whole world has gone crazy.

https://sodomojo.com/3-blockbuster-trad ... k9acmc2cdp

[D-train]

I don't know if it's as much about what I would do vs what the M's would do.

I think the M's think '25 was blip for Miller. He's cheaply controlled and very talented which I think checks a lot of boxes for the M's. Not very many 25 year olds out there are hanging sub-3 ERA's over 31 starts... which is why MLBTV is horseshit in some respects.

I also don't see the M's trading for Skubal if it is going to weaken their current rotation in doing so.

If they go for Skubal, it's got to be for prospects only. I realize Detroit is contending... but they seem to be falling into a more small-market approach where trading Skubal for a boat load of good prospects fits their building model.

Holy s*** how would it weaken our current rotation you're trading the best picture on the planet for one of our guys who mostly suck on the road. This place is gone crazy today.. it massively strengthens our current rotation!

How?

You think they’re trading Miller for Skubal and then keeping Castillo on the payroll? There’s no way they’re doing that given their current payroll projection.

In acquiring Skubal you’re guaranteeing like a Logan Evan’s in the 5th spot.

Yes I would just keep Castillo and if that means you are limited elsewhere which of course we shouldn't be. I would take paying Skubal $20M for 1 year over paying Naylor $20M for 5-6 years all day. Besides Castillo is going to be 33 yo next month and has been trending down. Evans held his own as a rookie and will be a year older with that experience under his belt. I doubt he would be much of a downgrade at all next season.

[Seattle or Bust]

Holy s*** how would it weaken our current rotation you're trading the best picture on the planet for one of our guys who mostly suck on the road. This place is gone crazy today.. it massively strengthens our current rotation!

How?

You think they’re trading Miller for Skubal and then keeping Castillo on the payroll? There’s no way they’re doing that given their current payroll projection.

In acquiring Skubal you’re guaranteeing like a Logan Evan’s in the 5th spot.

Yes I would just keep Castillo and if that means you are limited elsewhere which of course we shouldn't be. I would take paying Skubal $20M for 1 year over paying Naylor $20M for 5-6 years all day. Besides Castillo is going to be 33 yo next month and has been trending down. Evans held his own as a rookie and will be a year older with that experience under his belt. I doubt he would be much of a downgrade at all next season.

Eh I disagree.

As I said, I don't see this lining up unless the M's make a trade purely with prospects. I just don't see them trading from their rotation for Skubal unless part of that trade involves Castillo and eating some of the money + prospects. That could actually work if the Tigers get him for like $15M a year.

I could actually see the latter happening. Castillo is a good pitcher and he would be a welcome vet to a rotation still trying to contend.

Send them Castillo, $20M, Jurrangelo, Celesten, Evans.

[Vogelbomb]

How?

You think they’re trading Miller for Skubal and then keeping Castillo on the payroll? There’s no way they’re doing that given their current payroll projection.

In acquiring Skubal you’re guaranteeing like a Logan Evan’s in the 5th spot.

says who?