Virus Schmirus

[Oso Dorado]

Here in BC, the social distancing seems to be having an effect. Last four days or growth are at rates of 7%, 10%, 9% and 12%. There are 396 recovered to 471 active cases.

The rate of growth in the U.S. has been slowing too. I think some of that is that from NY city not growing quite as fast and skewing the averages. Also, I think that some of the earlier higher rates of growth were because of expanded testing showing more cases. Still, some areas have fairly high growth rates, so I don't think the overall rate will drop off that rapidly. At least, it looks somewhat better, and that's good.

[D-train]

right on Ron.

[Sibelius Hindemith]

I don't understand. How do you know how many new cases there are? And for that matter how do we have any certainty as to the number of people that have had it and recovered without realizing what it was they had? Regarding China, they are liars about everything, including the Wuhan virus numbers. Some people are estimating they had 10x the number of deaths as reported by their governnent.

What we do know is that this particular corona virus is transmitted more easily and more rapidly than others. Makes you think it came out of a lab or something.

New cases are simply Total cases on current day minus Total cases on prior day. Simple math. I can only go on what is reported obviously. Yeah if China is lying then it won't match my model. But my model leads me to believe they aren't lying. They had armies of dudes spraying down the town after all. Maybe it worked.

That's great, but unless the entire population is tested, nobody really knows how many total cases there are. Perhaps they have some method of estimating with a fair degree of accuracy based on numbers of people seeking tests, even though over 90% of those people don't have the virus.

Anyway, these shutdowns are idiotic. The harm to our economy from this is going to be felt for decades, assuming it isn't catastrohpic. I mean, adding 2 trillion to the national debt is utterly insane. They could have spend 100 billion to increase the number of hospital beds and to protect the people most vulnerable to this virus and let everyone else keep working.

[godawgs28]

I agree, if the quarantine is followed it will have a positive effect on bringing the numbers down, flatten the curve. But that isn't a cure. Its not solving anything, its buying you time. its like having your foot on the brake, so long as you continue the quarantine you are going to have confidence of controlling the spread. Of course they can't continue it forever, so what is the mechanism for ending it? I would imagine they would begin to allow groups of fifty and over, let restaurants and bars open, and they will be monitoring the situation to see the effect. To me, 40,000 fan baseball games are way down the list, I can't see them jumping to something like that in a few weeks. If they do manage to stem the spread of the thing, I can't imagine them putting that success at risk for sporting events

That why I think I will be here in the Briar patch for quite some time............

yeah, I am not there, but shit has gone crazy here now, this is a very bizarre situation. I am not trying to be negative. But show me anywhere somebody addressing what is supposed to happen next? Believe me, I have searched, what is the process for winding it down, restoring normalcy. I can't find anybody that has addressed that.

Completely agree! This thing is not going away any time soon, so under what pretense do we eventually open up, hold sporting events, etc?
We have to do it sooner rather than later.
It's going to take a mentality shift honestly. People are going to have to be ok with the risk....or not, but be willing to take their own precautions in the mean time while the world picks back up the pieces and moves forward again.
People will probably continue to get sick and die. Sadly that is part of life. Medical advances and a vaccine will eventually help that out.
But the time for being frozen with fear has to come to an end soon. I understand it to a point right now, but it isnt sustainable. Lets start looking big picture for strategic ways to move forward.

[Sibelius Hindemith]

The MSM is driving all of these shut-downs. The lunatics on the left would destroy our economy just to get Trump out of office. Heck, I'm starting to believe that our media is now beholden to China, much like many of our politicians.

[D-train]

The MSM is driving all of these shut-downs. The lunatics on the left would destroy our economy just to get Trump out of office. Heck, I'm starting to believe that our media is now beholden to China, much like many of our politicians.

I have never been more confident that Trump will win in Nov.

[Donn Beach]

so trump pushed for a heightened quarantine but then backed down from the blow back. I really have no idea what its like there. I guess your lock down is pretty much more lock down lite. I can see that in terms of american attitudes. Here is basically marshal law, and there is no push back. There is no freedom of movement, provinces have barred each other, cities, heck even barangays have checkpoints up now, those are like neighborhoods here. All transportation has been suspended, airplane, ferry, buses, taxis, the habla hablas, those are motorcycle taxis, all shut down. All businesses have been shuttered other than what is termed essential. I am barred from leaving my house, I am supposed to use someone to bring provisions for me. Whether all that is necessary, I don't know, but its serious business here. And it very well could be America needs to buckle down and really get serious about it too

[Donn Beach]

oh and there is also a Liquor ban!

[D-train]

so trump pushed for a heightened quarantine but then backed down from the blow back. I really have no idea what its like there. I guess your lock down is pretty much more lock down lite. I can see that in terms of american attitudes. Here is basically marshal law, and there is no push back. There is no freedom of movement, provinces have barred each other, cities, heck even barangays have checkpoints up now, those are like neighborhoods here. All transportation has been suspended, airplane, ferry, buses, taxis, the habla hablas, those are motorcycle taxis, all shut down. All businesses have been shuttered other than what is termed essential. I am barred from leaving my house, I am supposed to use someone to bring provisions for me. Whether all that is necessary, I don't know, but its serious business here. And it very well could be America needs to buckle down and really get serious about it too

Really minimal disruption in our lives. We went to a park yesterday threw the ball with the chuck it to the dogs. Saw a couple dozen people. Didn't french kiss any of them. Its pretty simple. Stay away from people. Worst thing for me is no baseball or March Madness or Masters. Other than that it is 9.99 for Vodka and 1.99 for gas. All good.

[D-train]

oh and there is also a Liquor ban!

That's F-ed up.