DJ LeMahieu To Reject Qualifying Offer

[Bil522]

So I said DJ hits better at home and Bil wants to talk about 2019, one of his best seasons certainly. I don't think that keeps up, and I'm not paying up for it.

Perfect example to prove my point, although it was one of his better seasons in Away games as well. But no comparison to his Home numbers.

Don't pay based on how he hits in Yankee Stadium and in Colorado. Pretty simple.

19 and 20 DJ moves from Colorado to NYY where he hits well there....as well as everyone else. Most players hit better at home....that is just factual. In Colorado,the pitched ball is straighter so batters have a huge advantage. The disadvantage comes in when you leave Denver you have to quickly adjust to explosive breaking balls again. That is the reason for bad splits there. I bet you that any team leaving Colorado, that has been there for at least a 4 game series suffers from inept bats for 1-2 games after leaving. DJ is a quality leadoff man who can show the young kids how to grind like a true MLB player.

[bpj]

So I said DJ hits better at home and Bil wants to talk about 2019, one of his best seasons certainly. I don't think that keeps up, and I'm not paying up for it.

Perfect example to prove my point, although it was one of his better seasons in Away games as well. But no comparison to his Home numbers.

Don't pay based on how he hits in Yankee Stadium and in Colorado. Pretty simple.

19 and 20 DJ moves from Colorado to NYY where he hits well there....as well as everyone else. Most players hit better at home....that is just factual. In Colorado,the pitched ball is straighter so batters have a huge advantage. The disadvantage comes in when you leave Denver you have to quickly adjust to explosive breaking balls again. That is the reason for bad splits there. I bet you that any team leaving Colorado, that has been there for at least a 4 game series suffers from inept bats for 1-2 games after leaving. DJ is a quality leadoff man who can show the young kids how to grind like a true MLB player.

Most players don't have that huge of a difference in career OPS at home compared to on the road.

It's just a fact that his OPS in road games is .697 for his career. That's brutal. CAREER. Thats a little better than JP Crawford. For how much?

He's not a guy I would personally bring to Seattle hoping he can outperform at his home park when it's not Yankee Stadium or Colorado.

A few years ago I said I'd avoid Ian Desmond after his year in Texas for the same reason. He couldn't even perform going from Texas to Colorado. That year in Texas he had an .865 OPS in Texas and a .703 OPS on the road and many people wanted to overlook his splits and bring him to Seattle.

Again, LeMehieu is career .875 OPS at Home, .697 in Away games.

Yuge red flag.

[D-train]

Mallex Smith.

[bpj]

Mallex Smith.

Here are Mallexs splits in 2018 Tampa Bay. He hit like a hero in Tampa and a zero everywhere else. And Dipoto was all, hey, gimme some of DAT.

Again, LeMehieu's career numbers are .875 OPS at Home .697 on the Road.

[D-train]

Mallex Smith.

Here are Mallexs splits in 2018 Tampa Bay. He hit like a hero in Tampa and a zero everywhere else. And Dipoto was all, hey, gimme some of DAT.

Again, LeMehieu's career numbers are .875 OPS at Home .697 on the Road.

They have a full time team of analytics people and they either missed or ignored something that could be looked up by anyone with internet access in less than 10 seconds.

[bpj]

Pretty amazing how they still went for it.

LaMehieu has shown he can be an .800 OPS player. That's the max he should get paid like.

He still seems like an over the hill guy who is sure to decline, but at least he'd probably still be decent compared to a lost cause like Mallex. Just sounds like he'll be overpaid bigly.

[bpj]

I think there is a decent case to be made that Lemehieu is comparable to Kyle Seager.

Seager is also a counter to the all guys hit better at home argument and would be what I fear from DJ.

Seager career OPS:
Home: .739
Away: .795

His Away OPS of .795 compares well to Lemehieues .803 Away OPS in 2020.

Although DJ's career OPS in away games (.697) is nearly .100 points lower than Seagers.


Seager is a year older, but how much are you paying him for 3 to 4 years going forward when we're talking about trying to give Seager away now.

[bpj]

DJ has benefitted from hitting in Colorado and New York.

His career numbers are pretty brutal away from the hitters home parks. Sub-.700 OPS for his career in AWAY games.

He's a guy I'd be wary of huge production dropoffs if he doesn't have a friendly home field.

.

[bpj]

DJ has benefitted from hitting in Colorado and New York.

His career numbers are pretty brutal away from the hitters home parks. Sub-.700 OPS for his career in AWAY games.

He's a guy I'd be wary of huge production dropoffs if he doesn't have a friendly home field.

Jeff Cirillo revisited? Good Point.

BPJ is wrong

.711 OPS in New York

And thats with a .756 OPS on the road. Can't even imagine how much worse he'd be with T-mobile as his home park.

[bpj]

I think there is a decent case to be made that Lemehieu is comparable to Kyle Seager.

Seager is also a counter to the all guys hit better at home argument and would be what I fear from DJ.

Seager career OPS:
Home: .739
Away: .795

His Away OPS of .795 compares well to Lemehieues .803 Away OPS in 2020.

Although DJ's career OPS in away games (.697) is nearly .100 points lower than Seagers.


Seager is a year older, but how much are you paying him for 3 to 4 years going forward when we're talking about trying to give Seager away now.

2021 OPS:
Seager: .723
LeMaheiu: .711